Lackey Divorces Cancer-Stricken Wife

Not really too much content to post here.  Title pretty much says it all.  

Worst pitcher in the league, ugliest man in baseball, giant scumbag to top it all off.

American East Arms Race

Which American League playoff teams have a pitching advantage? There have been plenty of unsung playoff pitching heroes over the years, from Colby Lewis last year to Orlando Hernandez on the '98 Yankees, and it's almost a certainty that someone near the bottom of this list will step up this year and make me look foolish, but here's my attempt at ranking the potential American League postseason starting pitchers:

Justin Verlander, DET
CC Sabathia, NYY
Jon Lester, BOS
Josh Beckett, BOS
CJ Wilson, TEX
Alexei Ogando, TEX
Ivan Nova, NYY
Max Scherzer, DET
Matt Harrison, TEX
Doug Fister, DET
Derek Holland, TEX
Bartolo Colon, NYY
Freddy Garcia, NYY
Rick Porcello, DET
John Lackey, BOS
Brad Penny, DET
Tim Wakefield, BOS
AJ Burnett, NYY

*It would give me limitless joy to amend this post in a few days to include those pesky Tampa Bay Rays, but I'll leave them on the sidelines for now.

Predicting the Yankee Playoff Roster

Now that the Yankees are officially in the playoffs and about to clinch the AL East, it's time for them to rest up and plan their postseason roster. The ALDS rotation will almost certainly start with CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova, but there are no guarantees after that. There's also the awkwardness of overusing Jorge Posada/underusing Jesus Montero, plus the question of whether Girardi will go with Eric Chavez or Eduardo Nunez when necessary, and how many at-bats Andruw Jones will get at DH. Personally, I think this is the best Yankee bench since the days of Ruben Sierra and Darryl Strawberry, and that's something that can put them over the top in October. This would be my roster:

CC Sabathia
Ivan Nova
Bartolo Colon
Freddy Garcia
Phil Hughes
Rafael Soriano
David Robertson
Corey Wade
Luis Ayala
Boo(ne) Logan
Mariano Rivera

Mark Teixeira
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Eduardo Nunez
Eric Chavez
Russell Martin
Jesus Montero
Francisco Cervelli
Brett Gardner
Andruw Jones
Curtis Granderson
Nick Swisher

And either Hector Noesi or Chris Dickerson, depending on if you feel like your matchup is more conducive to 11-14 or 12-13. No Burnett or Posada, and not just for dramatic effect.

Ranking the Yankees Announcers

1. David Cone
(huge gap)
2. Al Leiter
3. Paul O'Neill
4. Ken Singleton
5. John Sterling
(huge gap)
6. Michael Kay
7. John Flaherty
(huge gap)
8. Suzyn Waldman

Some Yankees Observations

Lots and lots to talk about as we head into October, the best month of the year.

The Yankees have four hitters in their starting lineup who, by OPS+, are below league average.  (Here's a link with a very simple, easy to understand definition of OPS+.)  Martin, Gardner, Jeter, and Posada are the four offenders.  Posada is just awful at this point, and there's not much else to say about him.  The other three, though, have had explosive weeks or months at a time, which has some value.  Martin and Gardner have also defended well, Gardner exceptionally so as usual.  A-Rod and Teixeira have underperformed a bit but have still been productive.  Granderson and Cano have obviously carried the offense and hopefully will continue to do so.

The Yankees have just one regular starting pitcher (of their five) who has an ERA+ (definition) under 116.  We don't need to sully this blog by typing his name again.  I'd have immediately signed up for this performance from the rotation prior to the season, and Brian Cashman deserves a ton of credit for finding hidden, cheap gems in Colon and Garcia.  Ivan Nova has been excellent, which many people were surprised by, but not me!  I predicted 17 wins and a 3.85 ERA this year from the rookie.  CC has been his usual self, a workhorse, stopper, etc.

The bullpen has been expectedly brilliant despite Soriano being the biggest waste of money since Carl Pavano Kevin Brown AJ Burnett.  Mariano is the greatest, Dave Robertson is the best 8th inning guy in baseball, and Cory Wade and Luis Ayala have effectively done what we had hoped Soriano and Joba would do this season.  Boone Logan is still really goddamn bad.

Joe Girardi is still a dumbass, despite our early excitement over his potential usage of advanced stats in The Binder.  I'm sure he'll do something inexplicable to cost the Yankees a game during the playoffs.

Posteason success will come down to consistent production from the offense and hopefully squeezing another few good starts out of Colon and Garcia.

Some MLB thoughts

- With all the talk about Justin Verlander and his comical MVP candidacy this year, Clayton Kershaw's great season seems to be flying under everyone's radar. He leads the league in strikeouts and ERA and even has 20 wins on a piss-poor Dodgers team.  His numbers are inflated by pitching in the National League, and, specifically, the NL West, but he still continues his climb towards the level of elite pitchers in the game.

- Speaking of elite, hello Jacoby Ellsbury.  Sure, juicing helps, but still a sick season and leading the league in WAR (and total bases).

- Let's talk about the rest of the Red Sox for a minute.  Beckett is still a good pitcher, and so is Jon Lester.  After that, and besides Daniel Bard, THEIR PITCHING SUCKS.  John Lackey might be worse than AJ Burnett, which is saying a lot.  If they get into the playoffs, they're obviously a very dangerous offensive team, and Beckett and Lester will be able to pitch 4 of the 7 games.  Their bullpen has been atrocious lately, with good old Anusmouth Papelbon acting like a clown as usual. That being said, an ALCS matchup with the Red Stockings would be a classic, and a ton of fun.

- Is there a worse team in baseball than the Minnesota Twins?  Is there a worse contract in baseball than Joe Mauer's?  (Nope, and nope.)

A New Approach

Lots of times, I want to sit down and write an article for the blog, but end up sighing and not doing it because I don't want to half-ass it but also don't feel like spending the time researching for something that I'm not getting paid to do.  I do enjoy it, but I've got a lot of other things competing for my time.

So, I'm going to try to post more, but with less "article-y" posts and more of a traditional blogging, opinionated, shorter posting style.

Let's Think About Baseball Better: Part 1

This post and the ones that follow may come across a bit preachy, but I want you all to think of it as tough love.  If you're reading this blog, odds are that you love the game of baseball.  Unfortunately, the odds are also in favor of you not thinking about baseball correctly due to decades and decades of fans and teams thinking about the game the wrong way.  I should also point out that most of the most dedicated baseball fans that I know are also struggling to embrace some of these concepts since they're so ingrained in our baseball lives from the beginning; these ideas are hardly mainstream.  Let's start with some of the basics.

Myth 1: Runs batted in (RBI) is one of the most important offensive statistics.

Let's get RBIs out of the conversation immediately; this stat largely depends on runners being in scoring position in the first place, therefore it's quite an imperfect method to measure an individual's offensive production. The most productive offensive player in the league could easily be nowhere near the top of the RBI leaderboard -- so why are we using this as one of the "big three" offensive stats? 

Have a look at Jose Bautista's 2011 stats.  He, along with Jose Reyes, have been two of the most dominant offensive forces this baseball season according to WAR (Wins Above Replacement, which we'll cover in the next post).  He's a big power guy, among the league leaders in home runs, but is currently sitting 16th in RBI.  This largely stems from the fact that the Blue Jays suck, and you can't knock in imaginary runners.  This isn't 2 on 2 backyard wiffle ball with ghost runners. 

I cannot say this enough, RBIs are stupid.


Myth 2: Batting average is really important.

Which player would you rather have in your lineup?

Player A: 262 hits, .372 average, 225 singles, 49 walks, 8 home runs,
Player B: 113 hits, .253 average, 51 singles, 110 walks, 37 home runs

Most fans would immediately sign up for Player A, 2004 Ichiro, no questions asked.  They'd immediately look at 2006 Jason Giambi's .253 average and dismiss him summarily.  Here's the problem: by every advanced statistical measure available to us, 2006 Jason Giambi is a considerably more valuable player than 2004 Ichiro. 


Let's look at on-base percentage (OBP).  On-base percentage is just what it sounds like, how often a hitter gets on base safely.  Giambi trails Ichiro by one percentage point, .414 to .413.  What?  How could that be?  Ichiro set the MLB hits record!  He hit .372!  Well, Giambi walks a ton!  What, exactly, is the difference between a walk and a single?  Hardly anything, except that Ichiro has the ability to steal a base frequently, where Giambi doesn't.  In 2004, Ichiro stole 36 bases and was caught 11 times.  In 2006, Giambi stole two bases and was never caught.  Even before mathematically allowing for how much making an out hurts the inning overall (which Ichiro did more), he only had a net advantage of 23 stolen bases over Giambi.

There are other ways where Ichiro being on base is more valuable than Giambi - scoring on a single from second more often, scoring on a double from first more often, scoring on more sacrifice flies, etc.  There are ways to calculate these things, but that's for another post way, way down the line. 

Now we get to the real advantage that Giambi has over Ichiro: slugging percentage (SLG).  Ichiro slugged .455 in 2004, just ten points away from his career high.  Giambi slugged .558, his fourth-best career total.  Slugging percentage tells us, basically, how powerful a hitter is.  It's calculated by dividing total bases into total at-bats.  103 points' difference in slugging is quite wide.

Having a more powerful hitter in your lineup (with essentially the same on-base percentage) will result in more runs being scored.  Simply stated, home runs are freaking awesome.  They don't require a man on base ahead of you, and they don't require anyone to knock you in.  They are RUNS in the purest sense of the term.  We'll elaborate a bit more on that later.

Now, having covered this in the briefest of ways with a good example, which player would you rather have?

Player A: .413 OBP, .455 SLG
Player B: .414 OBP, .558 SLG

Easy choice now, right?

Very, Very, Very Important Fact: The two most important basic statistics that we can use to evaluate a baseball player's offensive capabilities are on-base percentage and slugging percentage. 

In the next few posts, I plan to cover the following: OPS+, ERA+, FIP, xFIP, WAR, and more!  If you have no freaking clue what I'm talking about, then come back and have a look!

Islanders Goalie Situation a Microcosm of a Lost Franchise Mired in a Lost Season

When the New York Islanders entered the 2010-11 season with Dwayne Roloson and Rick DiPietro as their 1A and 1B goaltenders, it appeared that for the first time in years, the goalie position would be far from the top of the team’s list of concerns. Even as the Isles went on their fourteen game losing streak in October into November that essentially ended their playoff hopes, Roloson was one of the few bright spots, and DiPietro’s surprisingly good health was pointed to as another sign of optimism. But when general manager Garth Snow foolishly traded Roloson to the Tampa Bay Lightning in early January, the Islanders’ goaltending situation quickly and unsurprisingly became a disaster.

Nathan Lawson was summoned from the Isles’ AHL affiliate, the Bridgeport Sound Tigers, and struggled mightily, posting zero wins and a 4.19 GAA in six games before injuring his knee on January 22nd. Lawson is now available to return to the team, but in his absence, the goalie situation has taken a dramatic turn for the worse as the Islanders continue to plummet in the standings.

In desperate need of a goalie to back up DiPietro following Lawson’s injury, Snow boldly claimed former All-Star goalie Evgeni Nabokov off waivers from the Detroit Red Wings, who signed him from a Russian KHL team. Since the Isles had just traded a similarly effective and expensive veteran goaltender in Roloson, the move made little sense to fans, and evidently to Nabokov, who refused to report to the team because they were not in playoff contention. In an effort to fight off the embarrassment and backlash that came with this saga, Snow suspended Nabokov for the remainder of the season, but the damage had been done. The Islanders had failed to add a serviceable goalie in a very public negotiation that established them for the millionth time as an organization that no elite hockey players were interested in being a part of. But at least DiPietro was miraculously still in one piece…
Until February 2 in Pittsburgh, when Rick fought Penguins goalie Brent Johnson with 16.5 seconds remaining in the game. The left hook DiPietro took to the face landed on Sports Center and all over the Internet, and also landed him on Injured Reserve for 4-6 weeks with facial fractures and knee swelling. This night summed up the Islanders’ season quite well, with anemic offense spelling a 3-0 defeat, along with poor decision-making and bad luck creating yet another injury.

Twenty year old prized rookie Kevin Poulin then had his opportunity to carry the Islanders between the pipes, and he had Islander Country excited as he put up a 2.44 GAA in ten games. With the goalie situation somewhat stabilized for the time being, the Isles could turn their attention to other areas of need, such as another complimentary scorer to play alongside John Tavares. But last night in pregame warm-ups, Poulin suffered a knee injury that ended his season. Mikko Koskinen has been called up from Bridgeport as the Islander goalie carousel continues, and although Garth Snow cannot be blamed for such injuries, it is difficult to avoid making an analogy between the team’s goalie situation and their organization as a whole.

The Islanders’ season was seemingly doomed from the start, as the optimism of training camp was ruined by injuries to defenseman Mark Streit and left wing Kyle Okposo, arguably two of the team’s three most valuable players. The injury bug continued throughout the season, but the Isles’ inability to overcome injuries is partially because of the lack of depth on the roster Snow constructed. Poor decisions, such as Snow trading Roloson and DiPietro deciding to get into a fight with his well-documented injury history, have only compounded the goalie dilemma. Finally, the reluctance of free agents to come to Long Island, as exemplified by the Nabokov story, has added insult to injury. The Islanders goalie carousel is truly a microcosm of their overall problems, with a mix of all their major issues. Until the team’s weaknesses in the front office are fixed, their failures on the ice will continue.

After Unsuccessful Offseason, Does Cashman Deserve All the Blame?

When the Yankees fell to the Texas Rangers in the ALCS, fans were comforted by the assumption that the Rangers ace who was so instrumental in defeating them, Cliff Lee, would soon be donning pinstripes with a hundred million dollar contract in hand. With Lee as the Yanks only significant item on their offseason shopping list, there was little doubt that GM Brian Cashman would fail to land his man. But when it was revealed that Lee had other plans, with his heart set on Philadelphia more than the highest bidder, it soon became obvious that the Yanks didn’t have much of a Plan B.

While the rival Red Sox added superstars Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to a lineup that will be returning Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis from injury, the Yankees responded rather meekly, with Rafael Soriano, Andruw Jones and Russell Martin. Today, news broke that the greatest postseason pitcher of all time, Andy Pettitte, is retiring, which left the Yanks in more of a predicament than they could have ever imagined entering the 2011 season. But if disappointed Yankee fans want to play to blame game as they stew over the fact that it appears unlikely that their team will win the AL East, they should hesitate before heaping all their criticism on Brian Cashman.

Although many fans are choosing to forget this piece of information, the Yanks will return eight players from the starting lineup of their 95 win season that brought them two wins from the World Series, while swapping Lance Berkman and Marcus Thames for Jones and Martin. Their bullpen, meanwhile, has added Soriano as possibly the best 8^th inning man in baseball, along with Pedro Feliciano as a reliable innings eater and lefty specialist. The concern for the 2011 Yankees is solely on their starting pitching, which will arguably be its thinnest in its era of dominance that began in 1995.

Relying on CC Sabathia as a Cy Young caliber ace is not much of a gamble, but that’s more or less where the certainties end. Phil Hughes has all the makings of a bona fide 2 starter, but his 57 career starts suggest that it may be premature to crown him a dominant American League pitcher just yet. A.J. Burnett is coming off a horrendous season, and while an optimist might claim that he has nowhere to go but up, that is far from comforting to a fan base that is relying on him to step up as a lights out 3 starter. With a very unimpressive free agent market, Cashman has signed potential 4^th and 5^th starters in Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon and Mark Prior to incentive-based minor league deals, so before dismissing these transactions as an attempt to build a 2004 World Series champion, fans should remember that these are low-risk, high-reward deals that don’t burden the team financially. Throw Ivan Nova into the mix as a young arm poised to round out the end of the rotation, and the Wild Card is well within the Yankees’ reach, even before Cashman attempts to grab a front end starter at the trade deadline. So although Cashman struck out on the one big name on his to-do list, and his disagreements with ownership have been well-documented this winter, it is premature to declare his work a failure, since the team is still a work in progress.